The Needle: Live 2024 Presidential Election Forecast - The New York Times

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Latest Results

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Derek Tran, a Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent California’s 45th Congressional District.

Mariannette Miller-Meeks, a Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Iowa’s First Congressional District.

Dave McCormick, a Republican, wins election to the U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania.

Nick Begich, a Republican, wins election to the U.S. House in Alaska.

Jared Forrest Golden, a Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Maine’s Second Congressional District.

Janelle Bynum, a Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Oregon’s Fifth Congressional District.

The G.O.P. will keep control of the House of Representatives.

Juan Ciscomani, a Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Arizona’s Sixth Congressional District.

Ken Calvert, a Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent California’s 41st Congressional District.

Gabe Evans, a Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent Colorado’s Eighth Congressional District.

David Valadao, a Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent California’s 22nd Congressional District.

George Whitesides, a Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent California’s 27th Congressional District.

Ruben Gallego, a Democrat, wins election to the U.S. Senate in Arizona.

David Schweikert, a Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Arizona’s First Congressional District.

11 electoral votes

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, a Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Washington’s Third Congressional District.

6 electoral votes

Jacky Rosen, a Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in Nevada.

Don Davis, a Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent North Carolina’s First Congressional District.

Scott Perry, a Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District.

Robert Bresnahan, a Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent Pennsylvania’s Eighth Congressional District.

Ryan Mackenzie, a Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent Pennsylvania’s Seventh Congressional District.

Angus S. King Jr., an Independent, wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in Maine.

Eugene Vindman, a Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Virginia’s Seventh Congressional District.

3 electoral votes

2 electoral votes

Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat, wins election to the U.S. Senate in Michigan.

Tammy Baldwin, a Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in Wisconsin.

15 electoral votes

Tim Sheehy, a Republican, wins election to the U.S. Senate in Montana.

Kristen McDonald Rivet, a Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Michigan’s Eighth Congressional District.

The 45th president reclaims the White House.

10 electoral votes

10 electoral votes

19 electoral votes

Gabriel Vasquez, a Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent New Mexico’s Second Congressional District.

1 electoral vote

Josh Riley, a Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent New York’s 19th Congressional District.

4 electoral votes

1 electoral vote

See results for presidential, congressional and statewide elections.

16 electoral votes

Zach Nunn, a Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Iowa’s Third Congressional District.

Spencer Cox, a Republican, is re-elected as governor of Utah.

5 electoral votes

1 electoral vote

The G.O.P. captured the Senate after four years in the minority.

Deb Fischer, a Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in Nebraska.

4 electoral votes

Mazie Hirono, a Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in Hawaii.

Amy Klobuchar, a Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in Minnesota.

13 electoral votes

Ted Cruz, a Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in Texas.

Bob Ferguson, a Democrat, wins the governor's race in Washington.

Bernie Moreno, a Republican, wins election to the U.S. Senate in Ohio.

8 electoral votes

Timothy Kaine, a Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in Virginia.

16 electoral votes

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4 electoral votes

12 electoral votes

Maria Cantwell, a Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in Washington.

54 electoral votes

Adam Schiff, a Democrat, wins election to the U.S. Senate in California.

1 electoral vote

6 electoral votes

6 electoral votes

Martin Heinrich, a Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in New Mexico.

Kelly Ayotte, a Republican, wins the governor's race in New Hampshire.

Josh Hawley, a Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in Missouri.

3 electoral votes

10 electoral votes

4 electoral votes

Greg Gianforte, a Republican, is re-elected as governor of Montana.

Angela Alsobrooks, a Democrat, wins election to the U.S. Senate in Maryland.

10 electoral votes

Mike Kehoe, a Republican, wins the governor's race in Missouri.

See results for presidential, congressional and statewide elections.

See results for presidential, congressional and statewide elections.

6 electoral votes

John Curtis, a Republican, wins election to the U.S. Senate in Utah.

1 electoral vote

40 electoral votes

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17 electoral votes

3 electoral votes

John Barrasso, a Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in Wyoming.

3 electoral votes

Kelly Armstrong, a Republican, wins the governor's race in North Dakota.

Kevin Cramer, a Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in North Dakota.

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3 electoral votes

2 electoral votes

Pete Ricketts, a Republican, wins the U.S. Senate special election in Nebraska.

28 electoral votes

Kirsten Gillibrand, a Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in New York.

8 electoral votes

Josh Stein, a Democrat, wins the governor's race in North Carolina.

19 electoral votes

Matt Meyer, a Democrat, wins the governor's race in Delaware.

3 electoral votes

14 electoral votes

6 electoral votes

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9 electoral votes

4 electoral votes

Sheldon Whitehouse, a Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in Rhode Island.

7 electoral votes

Chris Murphy, a Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in Connecticut.

11 electoral votes

Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in Massachusetts.

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7 electoral votes

Andy Kim, a Democrat, wins election to the U.S. Senate in New Jersey.

30 electoral votes

Rick Scott, a Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in Florida.

11 electoral votes

Marsha Blackburn, a Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in Tennessee.

9 electoral votes

10 electoral votes

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Lisa Blunt Rochester, a Democrat, wins election to the U.S. Senate in Delaware.

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6 electoral votes

Roger Wicker, a Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in Mississippi.

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Phil Scott, a Republican, is re-elected as governor of Vermont.

4 electoral votes

Patrick Morrisey, a Republican, wins the governor's race in West Virginia.

Jim Justice, a Republican, wins election to the U.S. Senate in West Virginia.

See results for presidential, congressional and statewide elections.

See results for presidential, congressional and statewide elections.

3 electoral votes

Bernie Sanders, an Independent, wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in Vermont.

11 electoral votes

Mike Braun, a Republican, wins the governor's race in Indiana.

Jim Banks, a Republican, wins election to the U.S. Senate in Indiana.

See results for presidential, congressional and statewide elections.

8 electoral votes

See results for presidential, congressional and statewide elections.

See results for presidential, congressional and statewide elections.

Our election model estimates the outcome of the race in real time based on polling data, the votes reported so far and what we expect from remaining votes. Read how it works ›

Chance of winning

Trump

Electoral college estimate

Trump 312

286 to 312

Harris 226

226 to 252

Popular vote estimate

Trump +1.5

Harris +0.56 to Trump +4

Which states will decide the election?

These seven battleground states comprised 93 electoral college votes. Trump won seven of these states, securing victory.

Mich.

15

Trump

Wis.

10

Trump

Pa.

19 electoral votes

Trump

Ga.

16

Trump

N.C.

16

Trump

Nev.

6

Trump

Ariz.

11

Trump

Live forecast by state

As votes are counted in each state, our model adjusts its estimates in other areas with similar demographics and voting history. Select a state to see detailed results and estimates.

Detailed Key House Races
Race	Percent of votes in	NYT win probability	NYT estimate of final vote	Chart showing NYT estimates of final vote margins	Even	+20	+40	+60	+80
D.C.	>95%	Harris	Harris +84
Vt.	100%	Harris	Harris +32
Md.	>95%	Harris	Harris +26
Mass.	>95%	Harris	Harris +25
Hawaii	100%	Harris	Harris +21
Maine 1	>95%	Harris	Harris +21
Calif.	>95%	Harris	Harris +20
Wash.	>95%	Harris	Harris +16
Del.	100%	Harris	Harris +14
Conn.	>95%	Harris	Harris +14
R.I.	100%	Harris	Harris +13
N.Y.	>95%	Harris	Harris +12
Ore.	>95%	Harris	Harris +12
Colo.	>95%	Harris	Harris +10
Ill.	>95%	Harris	Harris +10
Maine	>95%	Harris	Harris +6.3
N.M.	100%	Harris	Harris +5.9
N.J.	>95%	Harris	Harris +5.4
Va.	>95%	Harris	Harris +5.2
Minn.	>95%	Harris	Harris +4.3
Neb. 2	>95%	Harris	Harris +3.8
N.H.	>95%	Harris	Harris +2.9
Wis.	>95%	Trump	Trump +1.1
Mich.	100%	Trump	Trump +1.5
Pa.	>95%	Trump	Trump +2.1
Ga.	100%	Trump	Trump +2.3
N.C.	>95%	Trump	Trump +3.4
Ariz.	100%	Trump	Trump +4.3
Nev.	>95%	Trump	Trump +4.6
Maine 2	>95%	Trump	Trump +9.6
Ohio	>95%	Trump	Trump +11
Alaska	>95%	Trump	Trump +13
Iowa	>95%	Trump	Trump +13
Fla.	100%	Trump	Trump +13
Texas	100%	Trump	Trump +14
Neb. 1	>95%	Trump	Trump +14
Kan.	>95%	Trump	Trump +17
S.C.	100%	Trump	Trump +18
Mo.	>95%	Trump	Trump +18
Ind.	>95%	Trump	Trump +19
Mont.	>95%	Trump	Trump +20
Neb.	>95%	Trump	Trump +22
La.	100%	Trump	Trump +22
Miss.	94%	Trump	Trump +23
Utah	100%	Trump	Trump +23
S.D.	>95%	Trump	Trump +30
Tenn.	>95%	Trump	Trump +30
Ky.	100%	Trump	Trump +31
Ala.	100%	Trump	Trump +31
Ark.	100%	Trump	Trump +31
Okla.	100%	Trump	Trump +34
Idaho	100%	Trump	Trump +36
N.D.	100%	Trump	Trump +37
W.Va.	>95%	Trump	Trump +42
Wyo.	100%	Trump	Trump +46
Neb. 3	>95%	Trump	Trump +54

How our forecast has changed

These charts show how our forecast has changed over the course of the night. As a rule, when the electoral vote estimate is steady in the presence of new results, our forecast is more trustworthy.

Estimate of final electoral vote count

The lines below include a shaded range showing our model’s uncertainty. As more results are reported, the uncertainty around the estimates will narrow.

Chance of winning the presidency