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Presidential Forecast

Our election model estimates the outcome of the race in real time based on polling data, the votes reported so far and what we expect from remaining votes. Read how it works ›

Chance of winning

Trump

Needle chart shows the New York Times forecastVery likelyLikelyLeanTossupLeanLikelyVery likely

Electoral college estimate

Trump 312

286 to 312

Harris 226

226 to 252

Needle chart shows the New York Times forecastRange of estimates310300290280280290300310’20’16

Popular vote estimate

Trump +1.5

Harris +0.56 to Trump +4

Needle chart shows the New York Times forecastRange of estimates+8+6+4+2+2+4+6+8

Which states will decide the election?

These seven battleground states comprised 93 electoral college votes. Trump won seven of these states, securing victory.

Live forecast by state

As votes are counted in each state, our model adjusts its estimates in other areas with similar demographics and voting history. Select a state to see detailed results and estimates.

Detailed Key House Races
Race
Percent of votes in
NYT win probability NYT estimate of final vote Chart showing NYT estimates of final vote margins Even +20 +40 +60 +80
D.C. >95% Harris
Harris +84
Vt. 100% Harris
Harris +32
Md. >95% Harris
Harris +26
Mass. >95% Harris
Harris +25
Hawaii 100% Harris
Harris +21
Maine 1 >95% Harris
Harris +21
Calif. >95% Harris
Harris +20
Wash. >95% Harris
Harris +16
Del. 100% Harris
Harris +14
Conn. >95% Harris
Harris +14
R.I. 100% Harris
Harris +13
N.Y. >95% Harris
Harris +12
Ore. >95% Harris
Harris +12
Colo. >95% Harris
Harris +10
Ill. >95% Harris
Harris +10
Maine >95% Harris
Harris +6.3
N.M. 100% Harris
Harris +5.9
N.J. >95% Harris
Harris +5.4
Va. >95% Harris
Harris +5.2
Minn. >95% Harris
Harris +4.3
Neb. 2 >95% Harris
Harris +3.8
N.H. >95% Harris
Harris +2.9
Wis. >95% Trump
Trump +1.1
Mich. 100% Trump
Trump +1.5
Pa. >95% Trump
Trump +2.1
Ga. 100% Trump
Trump +2.3
N.C. >95% Trump
Trump +3.4
Ariz. 100% Trump
Trump +4.3
Nev. >95% Trump
Trump +4.6
Maine 2 >95% Trump
Trump +9.6
Ohio >95% Trump
Trump +11
Alaska >95% Trump
Trump +13
Iowa >95% Trump
Trump +13
Fla. 100% Trump
Trump +13
Texas 100% Trump
Trump +14
Neb. 1 >95% Trump
Trump +14
Kan. >95% Trump
Trump +17
S.C. 100% Trump
Trump +18
Mo. >95% Trump
Trump +18
Ind. >95% Trump
Trump +19
Mont. >95% Trump
Trump +20
Neb. >95% Trump
Trump +22
La. 100% Trump
Trump +22
Miss. 94% Trump
Trump +23
Utah 100% Trump
Trump +23
S.D. >95% Trump
Trump +30
Tenn. >95% Trump
Trump +30
Ky. 100% Trump
Trump +31
Ala. 100% Trump
Trump +31
Ark. 100% Trump
Trump +31
Okla. 100% Trump
Trump +34
Idaho 100% Trump
Trump +36
N.D. 100% Trump
Trump +37
W.Va. >95% Trump
Trump +42
Wyo. 100% Trump
Trump +46
Neb. 3 >95% Trump
Trump +54

How our forecast has changed

These charts show how our forecast has changed over the course of the night. As a rule, when the electoral vote estimate is steady in the presence of new results, our forecast is more trustworthy.

Estimate of final electoral vote count

The lines below include a shaded range showing our model’s uncertainty. As more results are reported, the uncertainty around the estimates will narrow.

Chart showing changes in the estimate of final electoral vote count over time sadf sadf 200250300350 9 PM12 AM3 AM6 AM Harris 226 E.V.Trump 312 E.V.5:38 AM ET

Chance of winning the presidency

Chart showing changes in the chance of winning the presidency over time 20%40%60%80%100% 9 PM12 AM3 AM6 AM Trump victory5:38 AM ET